NFL . This is the Stafford syndrome. . Lets look at some of the players who saw the most action in lopsided losses (and wins for running backs) last year, examine their production, and determine what all that trash collection could mean for them in 2021 and beyond. RT @jameis1of1: This is a DAMNING metric 4 #Saints DENNIS ALLEN ANDY DALTON accumulated 70.6% of his season Total EPA in "GARBAGE TIME." Dalton's 2022 stats were literally JOKE stats JAMEIS WINSTON was #2 in the entire NFL in EPA in 2021 w/ next to no garbage time accumulation . Down by 21 or more points at any time Check out the second column in our chart. Notice that, through four responses, each follower pointed to the later stages of the game. These are more to be used as reference tools, but you will be able to successfully correlate many of these numbers to our earlier charts. Should the Vikings trade for Jalen Ramsey? Nick Sirianni hasnt done Hurts many favors with the playcalling either. Avoid those on teams that will do their best to run the ball (eg. With the San Francisco 49ers recent blockbuster trade to move all the way up to third overall in the draft, likely to select a quarterback, Kyle Shanahans reported infatuation with his former Washington signal-caller has resurfaced. A one-year extension for Kirk Cousins seems unlikely, Minnesota Vikings News and Links, 27 February 2023. That means that 87 percent of the scores Cousins threw in the second half of Minnesotas final 10 games did not happen during garbage time. Because there were quite a few records to wade through, I then cut anyone with fewer than 500 pass attempts over those three seasons. Drake is a free agent in 2021, and its hard to get a read on his value after a good-not-great season. On the one hand, it's hard to argue that Minshew benefitted from padded stats. When you compile all of Kirk's production in garbage time from 2020, his numbers are: 55/78 (70.5 completion%) 704 passing yards 7 touchdowns 0 interceptions 128.36 passer rating And of course, there are those still holding out hope for Deshaun Watson whos saga is nowhere near a resolution. He also provides Eagles coverage for Fox Sports Radio: The Gambler 102.5 FM. Five of Cousins garbage-time touchdowns in 2020 happened during the fourth quarter of a matchup, but only one of these came during Minnesotas final 10 games of the season. All - current. We can leave that data be. By accepting all cookies, you agree to our use of cookies to deliver and maintain our services and site, improve the quality of Reddit, personalize Reddit content and advertising, and measure the effectiveness of advertising. Or is he an inconsistent performer who likes to feast on soft garbage-time coverage? He completed 70.9% of his garbage-time attempts for 7 touchdowns. I feel so bad for Watson. Garbage time. Ravens tie NFL record for 100-yard rushing games on garbage. Below is a table of the times the Vikings found themselves in garbage time last season and what Cousins production from that point on looked like. That would be the highest rate by any QB in a season in NFL history. And you would be correct! The Minnesota Vikings QB completed 73.8% of his passes for a league-high 7 touchdowns when trailing by 16-plus points last year. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. It was already a bad day, but his deficiencies made it worse. But if nothing else, this three-game losing skid has to put a dampener on the expectations for this season. Its almost as if the Minnesota Vikings QB sees a prevent defense at the end of a loss, rubs his palms together eagerly, and proclaims, Time to make my money!. Standard Player Stats. It's good to be an elite QB with a great team, I guess. On the other hand, its hard to be too optimistic about a quarterbacks future who always seems to look gritty and determined when playing from way, way behind. Watsons performance this season was unprecedented, because ordinarily when a quarterback is playing at an MVP level, his team is winning. Never before in NFL history had a quarterback lost more than five such games in a season. This will give us a much better definition of what garbage time really is. Gaskin rushed 8 times in the fourth quarter of the Dolphins 31-13 win over the Jaguars. The stats also show that hes prone to running more frequently in close games. But lets focus on what really happened here: the Saints offense looked just as pathetic as youd expect with half a dozen starters missing. Minshews garbage-time method of operation is pretty straightforward. In a not-so-shocking development, youll notice that the ratings correlate well with the overall NFL standings. He needs to do more and play better bottom line. This is a subreddit for the NFL community. He had better stats then kyle Murray last year. Five of these seven touchdown throws happened during Minnesotas first six games of 2020 when they started 1-5 and Cousins was performing very poorly. At this point fans should just be happy to finish the season with a winning record. Get all 32 NFL team offense stats on LINEUPS, including total offense, rushing offense, passing offense, and more. In the end, I think the numbers suggest that - like most things Cousins - his garbage time stat padding is more complicated and nuanced than his detractors OR supporters would probably like to believe. That 92 percent mark is an NFL-high. Related | Kirk Cousins Contract Details, Salary Cap Impact, and Bonuses, Over the last three seasons, Kirk Cousins has completed a whopping 75.6% of his garbage-time passes for 13 touchdowns. When the Cardinals beat the Cowboys, 38-10, for example, Drake rushed 8 times in the fourth quarter. He was the Pass Game Coordinator for Simley and Mounds View HS and previously wrote for the Daily Thunder, FantasyPros, and Bleacher Report. Note that guys like Brees, Brady, Lamar Jackson, and Luck all appear towards the top of some of those lists - though typically not all of them, in the way Kirk does. Today, Ill be examining a variety of game situations to see which force teams to shy away from their usual play-calling. The losers usually have to keep struggling and striving until that last DFS-altering, point spread-ruining, over-clearing, Kirk Cousins-enriching touchdown. That means that 22.5% of his career pass attempts occurred when his Jacksonville Jaguars were getting blown out. The final score made this game look closer than it was the New Orleans Saints trailed the Philadelphia Eagles 33-7 going into the fourth quarter. The Blitz says: Ive taken the liberty of diving deeper into each scenario: >> Read More: Report: Eagles are officially OUT on QB Deshaun Watson. Notice how high the fourth quarter pass rates are when teams are trailing. [], [] Tua Tagovailoa to a new franchise in just his second year. To reach the conclusion that Cousins is apparently the meaningless-touchdown god, ProFootballNetwork.coms Mike Tanier set the criteria for garbage time to be classified as any time a team is trailing by 16 points or more in the second half of a matchup. Listed below are the six game situations that, according to our chart, fit the bill. Leonard Fournette caught 17 passes when the Jaguars trailed by 16-plus points back in 2019. Do you use those same assets to acquire a new quarterback via draft or trade. the Vikings/Packers tie in Lambeau). Trailing in the fourth quarter Take a look at our first chart. Only four quarterbacks in NFL history have finished a season with more than 4,500 passing yards, more than 30 touchdowns, fewer than 10 interceptions and an average of more than 8.5 yards per pass. In September 2016, Nolan began hosting NFL Films Presents, airing on Fox Sports 1. Robinson is an outstanding receiver in any situation, but Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles often could not reliably get him the ball until opposing defenses called off the dogs. Whether thats by design or due to Hurts bailing on plays early is another conversation. Reddit and its partners use cookies and similar technologies to provide you with a better experience. Vikings promote Weatherly, waive Hillman; is the return of Adrian Petersonnext? You also know that garbage time can inflate the stats of some players or NFL teams. Using these guidelines, Tanier found out that Cousins attempted 65 passes in these types of situations during the 2020 season, which wasnt even the most in the NFL. When you compile all of Kirks production in garbage time from 2020, his numbers are: After looking at the numbers, there are definitely some legs to the narrative that Kirk has an ability to take his stats to another level when the game is essentially already decided. Trading J.J. Watts for draft picks almost seems inevitable. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. Related | Dynasty Wide Receiver Rankings: Top assets heading into 2021. See trending Gardner Minshew, Nick Mullens, Drew Lock, and Matthew Stafford all attempted more throws than Cousins last season when their teams trailed by at least 16 points in the second half of a contest. The Eagles are now six weeks into the Nick Sirianni/Jalen Hurts era, and there are perhaps more questions now than there were before the season. Down 14-to-20 points, teams throw a whopping 85 percent of the time. NFL Fantasy College NFL Draft DFS Betting Defining 'Garbage Time' By mikeclay Nov 30, 2012 . Justin Jefferson is a phenomenal young player for the Minnesota Vikings. The Thanksgiving night game four days away (roughly 100 hours, if youd rather look at it that way). All-time Scores, Find a Score. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. Its hard to be as bad as the Texans are when your quarterback is playing as well as Watson is, but the Texans found a way. I bet he would have taken it. 2017-18. Thats a broad definition that includes some still-competitive situations, like when a team is trailing 26-10 early in the third quarter. For example, the Browns call a pass 48 percent of the time when ahead on the scoreboard. or who are playing catch up and garbage time ball in the third and fourth quarter. Just look at their losses to the New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons, and Tennessee Titans (who just got whacked by the lowly Houston Texans this week) earlier this season. Sad. The following production comes when the players team is. My preferred metric, ANY/A, has Kirk in 9th at +0.91just a shade behind Drew Brees (and Philip Rivers, both +0.99) - so yeah, it seems that some some pretty good QBs get the same types of bonuses that Kirk does. Maybe, maybe not. However, 44 percent of Cousins second-half touchdown passes (11) came when Minnesota was either trailing or leading by eight points or less. This will allow quite a few garbage time fantasy points through the air. 1-5 and Cousins was performing very poorly reddit and its hard to argue that Minshew benefitted padded... Four days away ( roughly 100 hours, if youd rather look at first. Fantasy points through the air better experience which became effective December 20 2019. Tie NFL record for 100-yard rushing games on garbage also read our Privacy notice and Terms of use which! And more his garbage-time attempts for 7 touchdowns the players team is trailing 26-10 early the. The Cardinals beat the Cowboys, 38-10, for example, the Browns call a pass 48 of... Mikeclay Nov 30, 2012, Nolan began hosting NFL Films Presents, airing on Fox Sports Radio: Gambler! Or NFL teams Links, 27 February 2023 who are playing catch up garbage. Youll notice that, through four responses, each follower pointed to the later stages of the time ahead... Became effective December 20, 2019 Minnesotas first six games of 2020 when they started 1-5 and Cousins was very! Almost seems inevitable better stats then kyle Murray last year second year you a!, 38-10, for example, the Browns call a pass 48 of... Waive Hillman ; is the return of Adrian Petersonnext ball in the third and fourth quarter overall! And similar technologies to provide you with a great team, I guess of! 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