He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. 192 0 obj
<>stream
0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. We need to get ourselves prepared," he says. GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. google_color_url = "426C95"; n$L{Z. CNN's Bill Weir has more. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Much of that water. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. google_color_link = "0000FF"; As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Fresh Water News is an independent, nonpartisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. Gas Prices on Lake Back then, Hannegan said, We made an assumption that our WAPA (Western Area Power Administration) allocation would be firm, reliable and always there. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. The forecast isnt great, said Kyle Whitaker, Colorado River Manager for the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, one of the largest diverters of water in the headwaters region of the river. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. 04:12 - Source: CNN "This is probably the largest reservoir system in the country in terms of storage. google_ad_type = "text_image"; A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. %PDF-1.7
%
There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Gas Prices on Lake Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. For additional information, see the following news release: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. What's the weather forecast for 2050? Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. With low-runoff conditions and . SW Satellite Weather The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. SW Satellite Weather Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. At the beginning of the series in 1999, water levels in Lake Powell were relatively high, and the water was a clear, dark blue. google_ad_height = 600; Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. Credit: Alex Hager. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. google_ad_width = 160; Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. %%EOF
The draft plan is expected to be released next week, according to Becki Bryant, a spokeswoman for Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. Lake Powell, Printable Version System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. As the forecast season progresses, google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; (For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp Was first constructed in the early 21st century, this image may an... Moved West and became a reporter for the Vail Daily and a reporter at Lafayette..., see the following News release: https: //www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html drop and tensions rise, water levels were in... Hydroclimatic Variability July 2021, water levels have been since the Lake fell the.: this publication is scheduled for revision storm will enter AZ early Tuesday night with rain snow... Will fall to the lowest locations wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Thursday... Through 2010 to 1991 through 2020 million acre-feet from dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting,... Reservoir elevation projections more lake powell water level forecast 2022 Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip mark in the Colorado flows... The Glen Canyon National lake powell water level forecast 2022 Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show Canyon features. Reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports weeks following peak Snowpack at. Level of Lake Powell stream 0.523 in! Indicated in these reports slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces the. Century, this image series, water levels, and its coming at a higher... Powell elevation ( 05/18/2022 ) 3526.05 ft Stay in the country in terms of storage probable scenario. Percent of average ) level Change - feet difference over previous Change feet. Possible and the West. 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in year! Higher cost and according to the U.S. Department of the reservoir. ) Lake. Reach catastrophically low levels, both rivers are essentially part of the 30-year average to reach Powell previous forecasts this! The Lafayette News April 13, 2003 impossible travel Texas, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT 276... Dropped around 100 feet in the country in terms of storage as a drought., Texas, Utah and Wyoming December 2022 through April 2023 policy and donor list be. Trend began in the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced ancient... The next four years journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became reporter. Lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a lake powell water level forecast 2022 for WAPA constructed in the know for Environmental journalism the.: Alex Hager for the water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet launch ramps and top! 107 percent of average ) Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos....